Construction cranes are getting harder to find on the Fraser Valley and Metro Vancouver skyline these days, and that is not by accident. Between slower housing starts and a presale condo market working through years of unsold inventory, British Columbia's new construction landscape looks very different heading into the back half of 2026 than it did just a couple of years ago. Here is what is actually happening, and what it means if you are weighing a presale or a brand-new build.
Housing Starts Are Slowing Across the Province
CMHC's latest outlook shows Vancouver-area housing starts on a steady decline: 28,112 in 2024, 27,185 in 2025, an estimated 26,000 to 27,000 in 2026, and a further drop to 20,500 to 22,000 by 2028. At the low end, that is roughly 27 per cent fewer new homes than 2024 levels. Condominium construction in particular is described as being at historically low levels in both BC and Ontario, and CMHC points to slower population growth, economic uncertainty, elevated mortgage rates, and weak income growth as the main drivers. One bright spot is purpose-built rental, where completions continue to rise and are the only segment genuinely adding to supply right now.
Why the Presale Market Has Cooled
Several forces are weighing on presale sales at the same time. Buyers who would otherwise qualify are hesitating at the final step, unsettled by broader economic uncertainty even when rates and prices have improved. Investors, who once drove a big share of presale demand, have pulled back sharply as rental rates soften, borrowing costs stay elevated, and some investors sit underwater on units bought at the peak. Lower immigration targets, down to 385,000 for 2026 from 500,000 previously, are easing population pressure and pushing vacancy rates up, which makes rental-focused presale purchases less appealing. On top of that, a wave of completed or nearly-completed projects from prior years is still working through unsold inventory, giving buyers more finished, move-in-ready options to compare presale contracts against.
Developers Are Getting Creative With Incentives
With demand softer, developers across the region are competing hard for the buyers who are still in the market. Deposit structures have loosened, with some projects accepting as little as 5 per cent down. Cash credits and savings packages are common, ranging from around $25,000 up to $100,000 or more on select units at some developments. Many projects are throwing in free upgrades such as air conditioning, storage lockers, parking stalls, and motorized blinds, while others are offering GST relief, property transfer tax exemptions, preferred mortgage rates through major banks, or extended closing timelines that give buyers more breathing room to sell an existing home first.
Is Presale Still Worth It in 2026?
The bigger picture is a genuinely buyer-favourable market: elevated listing levels, longer days on market, and prices softening in many segments rather than climbing. The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent, making borrowing costs more predictable than they were between 2022 and 2024, and CMHC expects record condo completions in 2025 with continued strong supply into 2026. Presale still offers real advantages, including developer incentives, modern systems with full warranty protection, and two to four years to plan your finances before completion. The trade-offs are real too: there is no guarantee a unit will be worth more when it completes, assignment sales carry more risk in a slower market, and personal circumstances can change over a multi-year build. For buyers who want the incentives without the wait, move-in-ready new construction is worth a close look alongside true presale.
What This Means for You
If you are considering new construction or a presale purchase in the Fraser Valley or Metro Vancouver, 2026 rewards buyers who do their homework rather than those expecting automatic appreciation. Compare the incentive package against the base price, not just the sticker price. Look closely at the developer's track record and financial standing, since a multi-year build is only as good as the company behind it. And weigh move-in-ready inventory against true presale, since both can make sense depending on your timeline and goals. If you would like help sorting through what is available right now, or want a second set of eyes on a specific project or contract, I am happy to help.
